Presidential Year 4

The tables on this page have the same columns as the 4 year Presidential Cycle charts except without the CAR column since CAR and total return would be the same over a single year and the period column is for a specific year.

The first table shows the DJIA for Presidential Year 4.

Year Total return MDD MDD date
1888 4.80% 9.71% 4/2/1888
1892 -3.35% 9.39% 12/19/1892
1896 4.07% 32.29% 8/8/1896
1900 7.00% 22.52% 9/24/1900
1904 41.72% 10.20% 12/12/1904
1908 46.63% 10.97% 2/13/1908
1912 7.57% 9.45% 12/11/1912
1916 -4.19% 18.15% 12/21/1916
1920 -32.90% 39.25% 12/21/1920
1924 26.16% 12.81% 5/20/1924
1928 48.22% 12.95% 12/8/1928
1932 -23.07% 53.57% 7/8/1932
1936 24.82% 11.32% 4/29/1936
1940 -12.72% 26.81% 6/10/1940
1944 12.09% 5.01% 9/14/1944
1948 -2.13% 11.37% 11/30/1948
1952 8.42% 6.92% 5/1/1952
1956 2.27% 10.55% 11/28/1956
1960 -9.34% 17.42% 10/25/1960
1964 14.57% 3.84% 12/15/1964
1968 4.27% 9.22% 3/21/1968
1972 14.58% 6.26% 7/20/1972
1976 17.86% 8.94% 11/10/1976
1980 14.93% 16.01% 4/21/1980
1984 -3.74% 15.55% 7/24/1984
1988 11.85% 8.42% 1/20/1988
1992 4.17% 8.10% 10/9/1992
1996 26.01% 7.47% 7/23/1996
2000 -6.18% 16.44% 3/7/2000
2004 3.15% 9.20% 10/25/2004
2008 -33.84% 43.07% 11/20/2008
2012 7.3% 8.87% 6/4/2012
Averages 6.91% 15.38
December had the most MDD's at 7 followed by July with 4, April, October and November each with 3, March, May and September each with 2 and January, February, June and August with 1 each.

Click here for a look at all DJIA year 4 charts stacked on a single page.


The next table shows data for the S&P 500 (SPX) for Presidential Year 4 1932 - 2004
Year Total return MDD MDD date
1932 -15.15% 51.00% 6/1/1932
1936 27.82% 12.77% 4/29/1936
1940 -15.29% 29.60% 6/10/1940
1944 13.80% 6.93% 9/14/1944
1948 -0.65% 13.54% 11/30/1948
1952 11.78% 6.85% 10/22/1052
1956 2.62% 10.78% 11/29/1956
1960 -2.97% 13.40% 10/25/1960
1964 12.97% 3.55% 12/15/1964
1968 7.66% 9.31% 3/5/1968
1972 15.63% 5.14% 10/16/1972
1976 19.15% 8.37% 11/10/1976
1980 25.77% 17.07% 3/27/1980
1984 1.40% 12.68% 7/24/1984
1988 12.40% 7.64% 5/23/1988
1992 4.46% 6.24% 4/8/1992
1996 20.26% 7.64% 7/24/1996
2000 -10.14% 17.20% 12/20/2000
2004 8.99% 8.16% 8/12/2004
2008 -38.49% 48.76% 11/20/2008
2012 13.4% 9.94% 6/1/2012
Averages 5.50% 14.60%

Click here to see all the SPX Presidential Year 4 charts stacked on a single page.


The next table shows data for the NASDAQ composite (OTC) for Presidential Year 4 1964 - 2004

Year Total return MDD MDD date
1964 23.12% 2.74% 12/10/1964
1968 20.59% 8.80% 3/6/1968
1972 17.18% 6.20% 5/9/1972
1976 26.10% 5.56% 6/9/1976
1980 33.65% 24.91% 3/27/1980
1984 -11.22% 21.74% 7/25/1984
1988 15.41% 7.84% 11/21/1988
1992 15.45% 15.05% 6/26/1982
1996 22.71% 16.55% 7/24/1996
2000 -39.29% 53.79% 12/20/2000
2004 8.59% 18.63% 8/12/2004
2008 -40.54% 50.38% 11/20/2008
2012 15.9% 12.01% 6/1/2012
Averages 8.28% 18.78%

Click here to see all OTC Presidential Year 4 charts stacked on a single page.


The next table shows data for the Russell 2000 (R2K) for Presidential Year 4 1980 - 2004

Year Total return MDD MDD date
1980 33.77% 26.75% 3/27/1980
1984 -9.59% 19.49% 7/25/1984
1988 22.16% 7.95% 11/22/1988
1992 16.36% 12.61% 7/8/1992
1996 14.76% 15.59% 7/24/1996
2000 -4.20% 26.78% 12/20/2000
2004 17.00% 14.72% 8/12/2004
2008 -34.80% 49.70% 11/20/2008
2012 14.6% 12.87% 6/4/2012
Averages 7.78% 20.72%

Click here to see all R2K Presidential Year 4 charts stacked on a single page.


The DJIA was started in the mid 1880's by Charles Dow as an average of large companies that indicated at a glance what was going on in the market as a whole. Originally the average contained 11 issues, mostly railroads. Over the years industrials and utilities were added then separated into their own averages and DJIA became the industrial average of 30 issues in 1928.

The SPX was created in 1957 as a capitalization weighted average of 500 large cap issues. It was calculated back to 1928 as an average of 90 issues to give it a historical trail.

The OTC was created in 1970 as a capitalization weighted index of Over The Counter issues. These were issues that did not qualify to trade on the NYSE. The OTC was calculated back to 1963 to give it a historical trail. The OTC was an index of small cap issues that altogether represented a very small portion of total market capitalization. In the early 1990's Microsoft, Dell, Intel, Cisco and other technology issues became large enough to trade on the NYSE but declined to do so changing the complexion of the OTC from a small cap index to a technology index.

The R2K was created in 1986 as a small cap index. It is made up of the smallest 2000 of the largest 3000 publicly traded companies in the US. It has been calculated back to 1979. Since the early 1990's the R2K has been the best representation of the small caps we have.

The following links show stacked Presidential Year 4 combining 2 indices on log scales so you can see their relative performance through the year.

SPX - OTC

OTC - R2K