Presidential Year 3

The tables on this page have the same columns as the 4 year Presidential Cycle charts except without the CAR column since CAR and total return would be the same over a single year and the period column is for a specific year.

The first table shows the DJIA for Presidential Year 3.

Year Total return MDD MDD date
1887 -8.42% 16.98% 10/15/1887
1891 11.11% 9.34% 7/30/1891
1895 1.68% 19.35% 12/21/1895
1899 9.20% 24.91% 12/18/1899
1903 -24.03% 37.73% 11/9/1903
1907 -37.73% 45.00% 11/15/1907
1911 0.40% 16.23% 9/25/1911
1915 81.66% 15.88% 5/14/1915
1919 30.45% 13.43% 12/22/1919
1923 -3.25% 18.62% 10/27/1923
1927 28.75% 10.01% 10/22/1927
1931 -52.67% 62.03% 12/17/1931
1935 38.53% 9.76% 3/14/1935
1939 -2.92% 21.58% 4/8/1939
1943 13.81% 11.14% 11/30/1943
1947 2.23% 11.53% 5/17/1947
1951 14.37% 7.79% 6/29/1951
1955 20.77% 10.02% 10/11/1955
1959 16.40% 9.89% 9/22/1959
1963 17.00% 6.44% 11/22/1963
1967 15.20% 9.92% 11/8/1967
1971 6.11% 16.08% 11/23/1971
1975 38.32% 11.07% 10/1/1975
1979 4.19% 11.25% 11/17/1979
1983 20.27% 6.83% 8./8/1983
1987 2.25% 36.13% 10/19/1987
1991 20.32% 6.93% 12/10/1981
1995 33.45% 3.29% 8/24/1995
1999 25.22% 11.53% 10/15/1999
2003 25.32% 14.91% 3/11/2003
2007 6.43% 10.03% 11/26/2007
2011 5.53% 16.8% 10/3/2011
Averages 11.3% 16.64%
There has not been a down 3rd year since 1939. October has had 8 MDD's, November 7, December 5, March, May, August and September each had 2 and April, June and July each had 1.

Click here for a look at all DJIA year 3 charts stacked on a single page.


The next table shows data for the S&P 500 (SPX) for Presidential Year 3 1931 - 2003
Year Total return MDD MDD date
1931 -47.07% 57.51% 12/17/1931
1935 41.37% 15.87% 3/14/1935
1939 -5.45% 23.05% 4/8/1939
1943 19.45% 13.05% 11/29/1943
1947 0 15.37% 5/17/1947
1951 16.46% 8.11% 6/29/1951
1955 26.40% 10.59% 10/11/1955
1959 8.48% 9.17% 9/22/1959
1963 18.89% 6.54% 11/22/1963
1967 20.09% 6.61% 11/18/1967
1971 10.79% 13.94% 11/23/1971
1975 31.55% 14.14% 9/16/1975
1979 12.31% 10.25% 11/7/1979
1983 17.27% 6.91% 8/8/1983
1987 2.03% 33.51% 12/4/1987
1991 26.31% 5.67% 1/9/1991
1995 34.11% 2.53% 12/20/1995
1999 19.53% 12.08% 10/15/1999
2003 26.38% 14.05% 3/11/2003
2007 3.53% 10.08% 11/26/2007
2011 -0.9% 19.39% 10/3/2011
Averages 14.1% 14.69%

Click here to see all the SPX Presidential Year 3 charts stacked on a single page.


The next table shows data for the NASDAQ composite (OTC) for Presidential Year 3 1967 - 2003

Year Total return MDD MDD date
1967 53.99% 7.68% 11/20/1967
1971 27.65% 10.80% 11/23/1971
1975 29.76% 16.16% 9/16/1975
1979 28.11% 12.92% 10/23/1979
1983 19.87% 18.04% 11/8/1983
1987 -5.26% 35.89% 10/28/1987
1991 56.84% 7.48% 6/26/1991
1995 39.91% 7.86% 10/10/1995
1999 85.58% 13.07% 8/10/1999
2003 50.01% 12.97% 3/11/2003
2007 9.81% 11.13% 11/26/2007
2011 -1.80% 18.71% 10/3/2011
Averages 31.5% 14.39%

There have been 2 down 3rd. years 1987 & 2011

Click here to see all OTC Presidential Year 3 charts stacked on a single page.


The next table shows data for the Russell 2000 (R2K) for Presidential Year 3 1983 - 2003

Year Total return MDD MDD date
1983 26.29% 15.14% 11/8/1983
1987 -10.25% 39.08% 10/28/1987
1991 43.68% 7.09% 12/11/1981
1995 26.21 6.82% 10/27/1985
1999 19.62% 12.22% 10/18/1999
2003 45.37% 13.18% 3/12/2003
2007 -2.75% 14.10% 11/26/2007
2011 -5.45% 29.58% 10/3/2011
Averages 19.7% 17.15%

Click here to see all R2K Presidential Year 3 charts stacked on a single page.


The DJIA was started in the mid 1880's by Charles Dow as an average of large companies that indicated at a glance what was going on in the market as a whole. Originally the average contained 11 issues, mostly railroads. Over the years industrials and utilities were added then separated into their own averages and DJIA became the industrial average of 30 issues in 1928.

The SPX was created in 1957 as a capitalization weighted average of 500 large cap issues. It was calculated back to 1928 as an average of 90 issues to give it a historical trail.

The OTC was created in 1970 as a capitalization weighted index of Over The Counter issues. These were issues that did not qualify to trade on the NYSE. The OTC was calculated back to 1963 to give it a historical trail. The OTC was an index of small cap issues that altogether represented a very small portion of total market capitalization. In the early 1990's Microsoft, Dell, Intel, Cisco and other technology issues became large enough to trade on the NYSE but declined to do so changing the complexion of the OTC from a small cap index to a technology index.

The R2K was created in 1986 as a small cap index. It is made up of the smallest 2000 of the largest 3000 publicly traded companies in the US. It has been calculated back to 1979. Since the early 1990's the R2K has been the best representation of the small caps we have.

The following links show stacked Presidential Year 3 combining 2 indices on log scales so you can see their relative performance through the year.

SPX - OTC

OTC - R2K