Presidential Year 2

The tables on this page have the same columns as the 4 year Presidential Cycle charts except without the CAR column since CAR and total return would be the same over a single year and the period column is for a specific year.

The first table shows the DJIA for Presidential Year 2.

Year Total return MDD MDD date
1886 4.78% 11.00% 5/3/1896
1890 -10.58% 22.57% 12/8/1890
1894 -0.50% 10.51% 10/29/1894
1898 22.46% 17.11% 3/25/1898
1902 -0.40% 12.96% 12/15/1902
1906 -1.92% 17.30% 7/13/1906
1910 -17.86% 25.68% 7/26/1910
1914* -5.42% 14.40% 7/30/1914
1918 10.51% 10.33% 11/25/1918
1922 21.74% 11.02% 11/27/1922
1926 0.34% 16.70% 3/30/1926
1930 -33.77% 46.44% 12/16/1930
1934 4.14% 22.78% 7/26/1934
1938 28.06% 26.35% 3/31/1938
1942 7.61% 18.65% 4/28/1942
1946 -8.41% 23.24% 10/9/1946
1950 17.63% 13.54% 12.30/1950
1954 43.96% 4.16% 8/31/1954
1958 33.96% 4.74% 2/25/1958
1962 -10.81% 26.72% 6/26/1962
1966 -18.94% 25.21% 10/7/1966
1970 4.82% 22.20% 5/26/1970
1974 -27.57% 35.22% 12/6/1974
1978 -3.15% 13.49% 11/14/1978
1982 19.60% 11.97% 8//12/1982
1986 22.58% 8.57% 9/29/1986
1990 -4.34% 21.16% 10/11/1990
1994 2.14% 9.68% 4/4/1994
1998 16.10% 19.26% 8/31/1998
2002 -16.76% 31.49% 10/9/2002
2006 16.29% 8.04% 6/13/2006
2010 11.02% 13.55% 7/2/2010
Averages 4.0% 18.00%

You would expect most of the MDD's to occur late in the year and they did, there were 5 in both December and October, 5 in July and 3 in November, August and March, 2 in April and May and 1 in February, June and September.

Click here for a look at all DJIA year 2 charts stacked on a single page.


The next table shows data for the S&P 500 (SPX) for Presidential Year 2 1930 - 2010

Year Total return MDD MDD date
1930 -28.48% 44.25% 12/16/1930
1934 -5.94% 29.27% 7/26/1934
1938 25.21% 28.87% 3/31/1938
1942 12.43% 17.82% 4/28/1942
1946 -11.87% 26.65% 10/9/1946
1950 21.78% 14.02% 7/17/1950
1954 45.02% 4.42% 8/31/1954
1958 38.06% 4.36% 2//25/1958
1962 -11.81% 26.88% 6/26/1962
1966 13.09% 22.18% 10/7/1966
1970 0.10% 25.86% 5/26/1970
1974 -29.72% 37.60% 10/3/1974
1978 1.06% 13.55% 11/14/1978
1982 14.76% 16.56% 8/12/1982
1986 14.62% 9.42% 9/29/1986
1990 -6.56% 19.92% 10/11/1990
1994 -1.54% 8.94% 4/4/1994
1998 26.67% 19.31% 8/31/1998
2002 -23.37% 33.75% 10/9/2002
2006 13.62% 7.70% 6/13/2006
2010 12.88% 15.99% 7/2/2010
Averages 4.5% 20.35%

Click here to see all the SPX Presidential Year 2 charts stacked on a single page.


The next table shows data for the NASDAQ composite (OTC) for Presidential Year 2 1966 - 2010

Year Total return MDD MDD date
1966 -1.51% 20.79% 10/10/1966
1970 -13.73% 37.11% 5/27/1970
1974 -36.11% 43.16% 10/3/1974
1978 12.31% 20.37% 11/14/1978
1982 18.67% 18.74% 8/13/1982
1986 7.53% 16.41% 9/16/1986
1990 -17.80% 30.70% 10/16/1990
1994 -3.20% 13.70% 6/24/1994
1998 39.63% 29.55% 10/8/1998
2002 -31.53% 45.90% 10/9/2002
2006 9.52% 14.78% 7/21/2006
2010 16.91% 17.33% 7/2/2010
Averages 0.1% 25.71%

This table includes only 40 years of data and shows an average negative return for year 2.

Click here to see all OTC Presidential Year 2 charts stacked on a single page.


The next table shows data for the Russell 2000 (R2K) for Presidential Year 2 1982 - 2010

Year Total return MDD MDD date
1982 20.67% 18.34% 8/12/1982
1986 3.94% 14.96% 9/16/1986
1990 -21.46% 30.47% 10/30/1990
1994 -3.18% 13.25% 12/9/1984
1998 -3.45% 36.86% 10/8/1998
2002 -21.58% 37.46% 10/9/2002
2006 17.00% 14.06% 7/21/2006
2010 25.31% 20.47% 7/6/2010
Averages 2.2% 23.23%

This table includes only 20 years of data and shows an average negative return for year 2.

Click here to see all R2K Presidential Year 2 charts stacked on a single page.


The DJIA was started in the mid 1880's by Charles Dow as an average of large companies that indicated at a glance what was going on in the market as a whole. Originally the average contained 11 issues, mostly railroads. Over the years industrials and utilities were added then separated into their own averages and DJIA became the industrial average of 30 issues in 1928.

The SPX was created in 1957 as a capitalization weighted average of 500 large cap issues. It was calculated back to 1928 as an average of 90 issues to give it a historical trail.

The OTC was created in 1970 as a capitalization weighted index of Over The Counter issues. These were issues that did not qualify to trade on the NYSE. The OTC was calculated back to 1963 to give it a historical trail. The OTC was an index of small cap issues that altogether represented a very small portion of total market capitalization. In the early 1990's Microsoft, Dell, Intel, Cisco and other technology issues became large enough to trade on the NYSE but declined to do so changing the complexion of the OTC from a small cap index to a technology index.

The R2K was created in 1986 as a small cap index. It is made up of the smallest 2000 of the largest 3000 publicly traded companies in the US. It has been calculated back to 1979. Since the early 1990's the R2K has been the best representation of the small caps we have.

The following links show stacked Presidential Year 2 combining 2 indices on log scales so you can see their relative performance through the year.

SPX - OTC

OTC - R2K