Presidential Year 1

The tables on this page have the same columns as the 4 year Presidential Cycle charts except without the CAR column since CAR and total return would be the same over a single year and the period column is for a specific year.

The first table shows the DJIA for Presidential Year 1.

Year Total return MDD MDD date
1885 27.68% 7.78% 7/2/1885
1889 5.52% 5.59% 7/22/1889
1893 17.98% 31.48% 7/26/1893
1897 22.17% 18.22% 11/8/1897
1901 -8.71% 21.38% 12/24/1901
1905 38.20% 14.78% 5/22/1905
1909 14.97% 8.10% 2/23/1909
1913 -10.35% 18.57% 6/11/1913
1917 -21.71% 33.50% 12/19/1917
1921 12.72% 20.15% 8/24/1921
1925 30.00% 8.50% 3/30/1925
1929 -17.17% 47.87% 11/13/1929
1933 66.69% 23.03% 10/21/1933
1937 -32.82% 41.54% 11/24/1937
1941 -15.38% 20.40% 12/23/1941
1945 26.65% 5.73% 3/26/1945
1949 12.88% 10.98% 6/13/1949
1953 -3.77% 13.04% 9/14/1953
1957 -12.77% 19.39% 10/22/1957
1961 18.71% 4.77% 9/25/1961
1965 10.88% 10.54% 6/28/1965
1969 -15.19% 20.53% 12/17/1969
1973 -16.58% 25.04% 12/5/1973
1977 -17.27% 20.29% 11/2/1977
1981 -9.23% 19.53% 9/25/1981
1985 27.66% 4.53% 9/20/1985
1989 26.96% 7.96% 10/13/1989
1993 13.72% 4.07% 2/18/1993
1997 22.64% 13.30% 10/27/1997
2001 -7.10% 27.36% 9/21/2001
2005 -0.61% 8.48% 4/20/2005
2009 18.82% 27.53% 3/9/2009
Averages 5.9% 27.62%
There were 5 MDD's in both December and September, 4 in October and November, 3 in June and July, 2 in February and March and one April, May and August.

Click here for a look at all DJIA year 1 charts stacked on a single page.


The next table shows data for the S&P 500 (SPX) for Presidential Year 2 1930 - 2002
Year Total return MDD MDD date
1929 -11.91% 44.67% 11/13/1929
1933 46.59% 29.75% 10/21/1933
1937 -38.59% 45.56% 11/24/1937
1941 -17.86% 22.93% 12/29/1941
1945 30.72% 6.88% 3/26/1945
1949 10.26% 13.25% 6/13/1949
1953 -6.62% 14.82% 0/14/1953
1957 -14.31% 20.66% 10/22/1957
1961 23.13% 4.42% 7/18/1961
1965 9.06% 9.60% 6/28/1965
1969 -11.36% 15.98% 12/17/1969
1973 -17.37% 23.35% 12/5/1973
1977 -11.50 15.59% 11/2/1977
1981 -9.73% 18.35% 9/25/1981
1985 26.33% 7.66% 9/25/1985
1989 27.25% 7.56% 11/6/1989
1993 7.06% 4.99% 4/26/1993
1997 31.01% 10.80% 10/27/1997
2001 -13.04% 28.70% 9/21/2001
2005 3.00% 7.17% 4/20/2005
2009 23.45% 27.62% 3/9/2009
Averages 4.1% 18.11%

Click here to see all the SPX Presidential Year 1 charts stacked on a single page.


The next table shows data for the NASDAQ composite (OTC) for Presidential Year 1 1965 - 2005

Year Total return MDD MDD date
1965 30.10% 13.19% 6/29/1965
1969 -17.96% 18.40% 7/31/1969
1973 -31.06% 35.20% 12/24/1973
1977 7.33% 6.42% 11/3/1977
1981 -3.05% 21.68% 9/28/1981
1985 31.15% 10.01% 10/8/1985
1989 19.26% 10.58% 12/19/1989
1993 14.75% 8.88% 4/26/1933
1997 21.64% 14.11% 12/24/1997
2001 -21.05% 50.22% 9/21/2001
2005 1.37% 12.47% 4/28/2005
2009 43.89% 23.22% 3/9/2009
Averages 9.5% 18.70%

Click here to see all OTC Presidential Year 1 charts stacked on a single page.


The next table shows data for the Russell 2000 (R2K) for Presidential Year 1 1981 - 2005

Year Total return MDD MDD date
1981 -1.50% 23.24% 9/25/1981
1985 27.25% 9.54% 10/8/1985
1989 14.22% 9.93% 12/19/1989
1993 17.00% 6.37% 2/23/1993
1997 20.52% 9.71% 12/19/1997
2001 1.03% 26.75% 9/21/2001
2005 3.32% 11.75% 4/28/2005
2009 25.22% 33.31% 3/9/2009
Averages 13.5% 16.33%

Click here to see all R2K Presidential Year 1 charts stacked on a single page.


The DJIA was started in the mid 1880's by Charles Dow as an average of large companies that indicated at a glance what was going on in the market as a whole. Originally the average contained 11 issues, mostly railroads. Over the years industrials and utilities were added then separated into their own averages and DJIA became the industrial average of 30 issues in 1928.

The SPX was created in 1957 as a capitalization weighted average of 500 large cap issues. It was calculated back to 1928 as an average of 90 issues to give it a historical trail.

The OTC was created in 1970 as a capitalization weighted index of Over The Counter issues. These were issues that did not qualify to trade on the NYSE. The OTC was calculated back to 1963 to give it a historical trail. The OTC was an index of small cap issues that altogether represented a very small portion of total market capitalization. In the early 1990's Microsoft, Dell, Intel, Cisco and other technology issues became large enough to trade on the NYSE but declined to do so changing the complexion of the OTC from a small cap index to a technology index.

The R2K was created in 1986 as a small cap index. It is made up of the smallest 2000 of the largest 3000 publicly traded companies in the US. It has been calculated back to 1979. Since the early 1990's the R2K has been the best representation of the small caps we have.

The following links show stacked Presidential Year 1 combining 2 indices on log scales so you can see their relative performance through the year.

SPX - OTC

OTC - R2K